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Hold, house edge, and no-no-no

Dear Mark,
In casual conversation with a pit boss while noting that everyone on
our blackjack table was losing, I asked him how he thought the casino
was doing that evening. He replied; “we’re probably going to hold about
50%.” Seems high, especially since you have stated that blackjack is
one of the best games in the casino to play. Harry S.

Don’t confuse, Harry, the "house edge", which is nil against a perfect
basic strategy player and approximately 5% against the Average Joe who
plays by the seat of his pants, with what the pit boss referred to as
the "casino hold".

The "hold" percentage is nothing more than the ratio of chips the
casino keeps to the total amount of chips sold, generally measured over
an eight hour period, which in your case, was probably swing shift. For
example, if the blackjack table you were on sold $10,000 in chips and
dropped the currency in the box, and the table ended up keeping $5,000
of those chips (players cashing in the other $5,000), then that
particular table game would hold 50% for the evening. If every player
were to lose their entire purchase of chips they bought off the game,
then the hold would be 100%. (It can even exceed 100%, Harry, if
players purchase chips from one table and lose them on another, like
the table you were on).

Dear Mark,
My Brother-in-Law seems to think that by mimicking the dealer in
blackjack, the house has no advantage, even on a shoe game in AC. For
instance, he always hits up to 16, and always stands on a soft 17 or
more. What do you think of his system? Clark B.

Listen up, Brother-in-Law of Clark B., the only advantage the dealer
has over you in blackjack is that you must act on your hand before the
dealer takes action on his. Rule variations have some effect on the
player's expected return, but not on the casino’s sole advantage of
having players whack away and bust before the dealer exposes the hole
card. The one advantage most players have over the casino is the
ability to quit while ahead, though that probably would exclude your
B-in-L when making use of the foolhardy system of mimicking the dealer.

Your question, Clark, was a bit vague in that you didn’t specify just
how far your Brother-in-Law travels in mimicking the dealer. You state
that in mimicking the dealer, your Brother-in-Law would always hit 16
or less and stand on 17 or more, but I’m also guessing on thin ice, I
know, that your Brother-in-Law, true to his mimicry regime, never
doubles, or splits pairs, since the dealer is not allowed to do so.
Therefore, using Atlantic City rules: 8 decks, and the dealer standing
on soft 17, if bro were to totally mimic the dealer, the house edge on
him would be about 5.5%, slightly worse than that enjoyed by the
Average Joe, seat-of-his-pants player.

Gambling quote of the week: The table was bulging with players while a
crowd formed from nowhere. I swear, people must have come in off the
street. It was as if someone changed the Dune’s famous sign from:
All-You-Can-Eat-Buffet after 4 PM to: All-You-Can-Win Craps Table Going
On Right Now. John Gollehon, A Gambler’s Bedside Reader (1998)